A strong El Niño is expected to influence Canada's winter weather, bringing above-average temperatures across the country and potentially reducing precipitation in western regions
The 2026 super El Niño is expected to influence winter weather across Canada, with forecasts pointing to warmer-than-average temperatures nationwide and drier conditions in parts of British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Scientists caution that cold spells and snowstorms remain possible despite the broader warming trend.
Ottawa, Canada: A strong El Niño developing in the central Pacific Ocean could shape Canada's winter weather, with forecasts indicating above-average temperatures across much of the country and reduced precipitation in several western regions.
Ocean temperatures during the current event have reportedly reached nearly 3.5°C above the 1991-2020 average, exceeding the previous reported record of 3.08°C set in 2015. The event is not expected to peak until December.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon involving warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It influences atmospheric circulation and can affect rainfall, drought conditions and temperatures across different parts of the world.
However, scientists caution that its effects vary by region and that seasonal forecasts do not determine the weather on any particular day.
Super El Niño Forecast Points to Warmer Canadian Winter
Bill Merryfield, a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said the broader effects of El Niño on Canadian winter weather generally become more pronounced towards late December.
Historically, strong El Niño events have been associated with milder winters across much of Canada. During the 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 events, winter temperatures in the Prairies were reported to have reached as much as 5°C above historical averages.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth said forecasts indicate warmer-than-average conditions across Canada, particularly in central and northern regions, as well as parts of eastern Canada.
He noted that the comparison with the 1991-2020 average also reflects the influence of long-term climate change.
Western Canada Could Experience Drier Conditions
While warmer temperatures may reduce the frequency of severe cold conditions in some areas, parts of western Canada could receive less precipitation during the winter.
Hausfather said climate models point to drier conditions in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan, while some regions of the United States are expected to experience wetter conditions.
An analysis of eight previous strong El Niño events found that 12 of 13 modelling groups projected approximately 19% less rainfall in the regions under consideration, according to Hausfather.
Reduced precipitation could increase concerns about drought and wildfire risk in areas already experiencing dry conditions, particularly as the region moves towards 2027.
Cold Spells and Snowstorms Remain Possible
Despite the forecast for above-average temperatures, Canadians should not expect consistently mild weather throughout the winter.
Scientists emphasise that seasonal outlooks describe broad patterns rather than daily conditions. Cold spells, snowfall and snowstorms can still occur during a warmer-than-average winter.
Hausfather said north-central Canada could experience temperatures around 2°C above normal, while day-to-day and week-to-week variations would continue.
El Niño is therefore expected to influence Canada's winter climate, but local conditions will depend on several interacting weather and climate factors.
